Could Gearboxs Be The End Of Sram's Domonation?

News recently broke that Fox Factory has been granted a patent for a gearbox system that, if it ever comes to market, could compete with something like the Pinion gearbox (details of the system were reported by PinkBike). Over the past few years, we’ve seen more and more bikes ditch the traditional derailleur in favor of gearboxes. So far, they’ve only appeared on enthusiast-level bikes from niche brands, but it’s exciting to imagine a future where most bikes in the world could be powered by gearboxes. I can definitely envision a scenario where this shift is real possibility, potentially ushering in a whole new drivetrain paradigm in the coming years.

Gearboxes offer several significant advantages over traditional gear systems, many of which stem from the fact that the gears are housed in a sealed unit. This protects the components from impacts and harsh environmental elements, allowing the bike to be ridden longer before requiring maintenance. This increased reliability is a major benefit for many riders. Furthermore, gearboxes will only become a more compelling option as competition increases and prices become more accessible to the average consumer.

“Hold on,” you might be thinking. “Haven’t we already exploited these benefits with internal geared hubs?” To that, I would argue that while internal geared hubs do offer some of the benefits of gearboxes, they aren't as effective a solution for most applications. This is because internal geared hubs sidestep one of the biggest challenges faced by gearbox manufacturers: the need for a proprietary frame specially designed to fit the gearbox. By avoiding this challenge, internal geared hubs are easier to adopt. However, this convenience comes at a cost. The rear hub is already one of the most complex parts of a bike, and adding more complexity here can be difficult. Examples of the trade-offs include the increased difficulty of removing the rear wheel to change a tire or tube and the shift in the bike's center of mass. Meanwhile, the gearbox in the bottom bracket area may require proprietary frames, making adoption more complicated. However, it ultimately offers a more effective solution to the problem both systems aim to address.

It’s not guaranteed that gearboxes will ever reach mass adoption, but let’s imagine they do. What would that mean for the bike industry? One thing is certain: it would create significant opportunities for companies to innovate and grow. Disruptive times often allow smaller startups to gain market share, as they can adapt to new standards faster than larger companies that have long been committed to the status quo. Big drivetrain manufacturers like SRAM and Shimano have built their entire businesses around selling traditional drivetrains, so it’s understandable why they might hesitate to embrace a completely new competing paradigm. However, if the industry rapidly and widely adopts gearboxes, it could catch these established brands off guard, forcing them to scramble to stay competitive.

I find this thought experiment even more exciting because the patent comes from Fox Factory, whose biggest competitor in the bike space is RockShox—owned by SRAM. This patent shows that Fox has recognized the market opportunity to become an early adopter of gearbox drivetrains, potentially giving them a lead in this new era of bike drivetrains. If successful, they could be more competitive by offering both a new product category for OEMs and consumers, and a more compelling wholesale package that bundles suspension components with a drivetrain offering.

So, what happens next if gearboxes start to become standard on bikes? The first question I wonder about is how different interface standards might influence market dynamics. I imagine established gearbox brands like Pinion would want to keep the interface proprietary between the gearbox and the rest of the bike frame. This could help defend their position in the market, as bike brands would face high switching costs if they wanted to switch to a competitor. This dynamic could slow the overall shift to gearboxes by limiting the number of gearbox suppliers available to bike brands.

A major shift could also take place among the big players in the industry. If adoption happens quickly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pinion is acquired by someone like SRAM or Shimano to stay competitive during this transition. Whatever happens, I’m excited to see how it unfolds. In my mind, Fox Factory’s exploration of this space is a smart move, positioning them to be in a strong position for the future.