What Shimano’s New MTB Groupset Needs to Get Right

Shimano is rumored to be releasing a new mountain bike groupset sometime this week. This is exciting because their current offering feels like a t-shirt that's been through the wash too many times. The Shimano MTB drivetrain is the only example of a cable-operated shifting still being raced at the highest level. All road athletes and SRAM-sponsored mountain athletes have been riding electronic shifting groupsets for a long time now. In fact, I would argue that missing a good electronic MTB drivetrain is one of Shimano's biggest weaknesses, certainly a big hole in their offerings at least. I do not know exactly what this new system is going to look like, but I do have some predictions. Here is my best guess of what to expect—starting with what I believe to be safe assumptions, then moving to must-haves for it to compete with SRAM, and finally some things that would be unlikely to see but would be cool as hell.

Here are the things that I would put money on seeing in this new groupset. Firstly, I think we all know that it is going to be a 1x system; this is probably the safest bet. However, this raises the question of how many speeds it will be. I feel pretty confident that it is going to be 12-speed. Despite seeing some 13-speed groupsets from some other brands, I think sticking to 12 speeds is more likely. This would continue to match their road bike systems (more on that later) and also match SRAM MTB options. The last thing that I feel confident about predicting is that it will be electronically actuated and at least semi-wireless.

Ticking the boxes above would be an improvement from what they offer now. However, these things alone would not be enough to truly compete with SRAM. Here is my list of must-haves to be a competitive option in the marketplace. To start, these new components really should fit into a larger ecosystem; this means the MTB derailleur should be able to pair with the current wireless Di2 12-speed road shifters for gravel use. Furthermore, the whole system should be able to connect wirelessly to the Shimano E-Tube app for adjustments and over-the-air updates.

Next, to compete with the other options on the market, the system needs to either have a built-in battery with exceptionally long life or have batteries which are hot-swappable mid-ride. This is needed to remove the pain point of wheeling your bike inside to plug it in every ride or two.

Likewise, with more and more mountain bikers having an e-bike in their garage, e-bike integration is becoming more and more important. Shimano does have an offering now that integrates with Shimano’s own branded e-bike motors; but this brings me to my next point , and the first of the things that would be cool but are unlikely to happen. I made an argument in a piece a few months ago about how SRAM should make their e-bike integrations open source for free for all e-bike manufacturers to build into their products, and in doing so they would make their drivetrains the de facto choice for all mid and high-end e-bikes. SRAM has yet to do this, and I think this is a major opportunity for Shimano to capitalize on, and in doing so take a big chunk of market share back from SRAM.

Finally, here are the other two things that would be cool to see but are unlikely in reality. Starting with some type of direct-mount derailleur system similar to the T-Type derailleur from SRAM. This is unlikely because SRAM has the rights to this standard on lockdown, and it would be difficult to find adoption from frame manufacturers for a new standard. However, if they can make it happen, it would be a big hit, and lots of consumers would be happy to have another direct mount option. Lastly, with this announcement it would be cool to see a major update to the E-Tube app that makes the user experience less janky, because it's not the best at the moment.

I'm excited to see all the details of this release, and we can find out how close my predictions are. I will likely do a reaction post covering my thoughts on the details when we know more.